A year ago, Israel and Saudi Arabia talked to the US at the United Nations meetings in New York about an agreement that could end hostilities between Israel and its Arab neighbors, reshaping the Middle East . Then Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, taking hostages and massacring about 1,200 Israelis. A year after the October 7 massacre, most surviving hostages have not yet been released. According to local health authorities, more than 40,000 Gazans have been killed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity at home is soaring due to his military successes against Hezbollah. and the Biden administration has less influence than ever over Israel’s decision-making.

With Israel and Iran teetering on the brink of all-out war, administration officials fear that these escalating retaliations could spiral into a regional conflict — exactly what President Joe Biden has been trying to avoid since the day after Hamas’s surprise attack, when Hezbollah joined in and started sending rockets towards Israel.

Asked why the US – Israel’s largest arms supplier – has so little influence over its closest ally, a senior official said: “We have influence, but we have not always used it.” And administration officials say Netanyahu now sees a brief window before the U.S. election to try to end what he sees as an existential threat to Israel’s survival: Iran and its terrorist allies’ determination to see Israel as to eliminate an independent state.

So how did Netanyahu revive his political support at home, which had all but collapsed after his military and intelligence services failed to detect Hamas’ attack? It has been twelve long and dangerous months.

In the immediate aftermath of the massacre, there was horror and sympathy worldwide. But a few weeks later, when Israel bombed the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza in an attempt to kill a Hamas commander, the videos went viral. Analysis of satellite images suggested that Israel had used 2,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs, capable of causing massive damage to anyone within hundreds of feet of impact.

The Arab world, the European public and demonstrators in the US were outraged. Leading Democratic senators and lifelong supporters of Israel told me privately that they were appalled by what they saw as a disproportionate use of force. Foreign service officers at the State Department complained about the use of a U.S. bomb in the attack, a possible violation of congressionally imposed restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons. Meanwhile, Israel’s initial siege of Gaza, which cut off food, water and fuel, created a desperate humanitarian crisis.

For 11 months, CIA Director William Burns and Secretary of State Tony Blinken traveled across the Middle East to negotiate with Israel, Egypt and Qatar – which represents Hamas – over a ceasefire and the release of hostages. In November there was one brief ceasefire and more than a hundred hostages from all over the world returned home. But every time Blinken expected or announced a new breakthrough, Netanyahu or Hamas – or both – would raise the stakes. During his tenth mission to the region, Blinken didn’t even stop in Israel. No deal was possible.

And then Hamas executed American Hersh Goldberg-Polin and five other hostages, a devastating blow to their courageous families.

The dominoes kept falling. In April, Iran retaliated against the Israeli bombing of an Iranian consulate in Damascus. Israel intercepted all but one of the drones and missiles with the help of the US and other allies. Then a rocket, believed to have been fired by Hezbollah, hit a football field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, killing twelve youths. Israel has once again upped the ante by assassinating the political director of Hamas in the Iranian capital – a dramatic demonstration of Israel’s ability to penetrate Iran’s defenses.

Perhaps the most stunning demonstration of Israel’s reach was a coordinated operation that led to the detonation of thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah members, often in public. Dozens were killed and thousands injured, according to Lebanese health officials. This was followed by the targeted killing of veteran Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, an assassination that Netanyahu approved from New York just after he addressed the United Nations General Assembly. A few hours later, a senior Israeli official told reporters during a briefing that Israel would continue to try to eliminate Hezbollah. He said that when your enemy is defeated, you do not abandon him.

But today, as Israel commemorates the grim anniversary of October 7, hostage families live in fear that their loved ones will be killed. Meanwhile, Biden appears paralyzed. As a US official told me, Netanyahu knows that Biden is in a political straitjacket. An emboldened Netanyahu will likely once again ignore the president’s calls for a proportionate response; the Israeli leader could even use this moment to deliver a decisive blow to Iran. A Saudi deal with Israel seems dead for now. And the potential for a broader war involving the US has never been greater.