Democrats can look at Florida and Texas in a number of ways. From one point of view, the states are both places where victory was just out of reach – a tantalizing “what if?” From another, they offer an unlearned lesson in heartbreak, a constant loop in which Lucy snatches the football away from Charlie Brown at the last moment.

For now, the former position is winning as Senate Democrats try to hold on to their slim majority. A new wave of money and interest is starting to pour into Florida and Texas as polls show the election tightening and Election Day fast approaching. And with incumbents like Republican Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas as their targets, it’s not hard to see why Democrats view taking on this offense as a risk worth taking.

The electoral map was never kind to Senate Democrats this cycle, who were forced to defend far more seats than their Republican counterparts. With the Republican Party poised to claim a seat from retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, IW.Va., the House is already starting to split 50-50. The chances for Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., to pull off an upset in his now deep-red state have become increasingly slim, forcing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-Y, to look elsewhere for a path to a majority. And that path requires taking out at least one of the two least likable members of the Republican caucus.

This time, things are looking tight again in Texas as Democratic Rep. Colin Allred Cruz closes in. Most polls still have Cruz ahead by about three points, but an outlier from Morning Consult put the congressman up by one point. That’s still within the margin of error, but the numbers have fueled Democrats’ hopes that the state could be a spring ball. Accordingly, the Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted its rating in that race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” reflecting Allred’s momentum.

In any case, Cruz is very aware of his own vulnerability. He stormed into the Senate in 2012 and quickly made a name for himself as a darling of the far-right tea party movement. But his bid for president in 2016 faltered, and his first re-election bid in 2018 ended with a squeak: he won by less than 3 points. Over the past two years, as he prepared to face voters again, Cruz has tried to remake himself as a bipartisan moderate, a tough task when you’ve built your entire brand as a provocateur and ideological bomber.

Scott, on the other hand, hasn’t bothered to follow Cruz’s lead by running for the middle (despite winning his seat by just 0.1 points that same year). Instead, the first-term senator is seeking to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., at the top of the Republican caucus and take over the title of majority leader, if all goes as planned. But his time heading the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the most recent midterm elections wasn’t exactly a great success, and neither was his attempt to defeat McConnell last year.

Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell isn’t doing as well against Scott as Allred did against Cruz, but she’s gaining traction. According to Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, Scott is up four points, which is half the lead he had over the summer. Mucarsel-Powell also plans to turn the race into a referendum on reproductive rights. By doing so, she hopes to gain enough support from the abortion amendment on the ballot to negate any advantage Scott might gain by riding in former President Donald Trump’s shoes.

The optimistic view is that any contest can be won with more committed discipline from local Democrats or with more resources and attention from the national party. But recent history has shown that neither is a guarantee of success. Cruz’s 2018 challenger, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, was popular locally and nationally and was seen as a real contender to finally win a statewide race in Texas after a more than two-decade drought for Democrats . Similarly, former Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., transformed her 2022 race against Sen. Marco Rubio into a national referendum on the Republican Party, but neither was able to dethrone their opponent.

Those two races raised (and spent) a staggering amount of money in the process. O’Rourke’s campaign has raised a whopping $80 million, the most ever raised by a single U.S. Senate candidate. Demings managed to raise almost as much for her race, significantly surpassing Rubio. This year, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced in late September that both Mucasal-Powell and Allred will receive support in the form of multimillion-dollar ad buys in their states, but the DSCC has not yet revealed exactly how much will go to each. candidate.

The two biggest unknowns in these races are factors beyond the individual candidates’ control: infrastructure and demographics.

Once the nation’s largest swing state, Florida has moved to the right over the past decade, helping the Republican Party score big victories in the 2022 midterm elections. If we’re honest, it doesn’t help that the Democratic Party has made a bit of a mess there, creating a vacuum for Trump to fill in his new home state. And Scott, who has already spent $8 million of his own money in this race, will surely continue to bring in cash to offset the DSCC’s investment.

Conversely, Texas is a deeply Republican territory that Democrats have tried to turn into a purple state over the past decade. An influx of people to the Austin and Houston metro areas has led to an increase in the number of liberal voters. A big question mark lingers over how Latinos will ultimately vote this year, now that the Republican Party has made major strides in border communities. Meanwhile, Texas’ Republican attorney general has cracked down on voting rights, potentially alienating Latinos.

With less than four weeks to go, this is not an ideal scenario for Democrats. There is plenty of reason for cynicism in the face of these odds and so many previous disappointments. But with so much at stake, there is little choice but to take the fight and get a flying start with that football again. Better to land flat on your back than wish you had taken the chance to dispatch the likes of Scott and Cruz.