Microsoft has given itself a seemingly impossible race against time. With almost exactly a year to go before the unpopular Windows 10 end of life hits users in October 2025, Windows 11 is still failing to attract the hundreds of millions of additional users it needs to prevent a generational support nightmare becomes reality.

But maybe – and it’s a big maybe – some light is starting to enter this gloomy tunnel. We don’t have official numbers from Microsoft, but the latest data just coming in from StatCounter suggests some progress is being made. In the last twelve months, approximately 130 million Windows 10 users switched to Windows 11. The bad news, however, is that almost 900 million Windows 10 users are still hanging on. The move from Windows 10 to Windows 11 is finally gaining momentum, but it remains far, far behind what we’ve seen before with similar OS transitions.

ForbesGoogle warns millions of Android users: these apps are ‘dangerous’By means of Zak Duffman

Windows 11 is of course an update with a unique positioning, given the security hardware requirement that excludes hundreds of millions of PCs from an operating system upgrade. But now that another year has passed, the reality is that machines now have to be quite old to clear the hurdle. There’s clearly a lot more to it than that.

Three years after the release of Windows 11, the shiny new operating system has an image problem that Microsoft can’t seem to solve. What will happen in twelve months remains to be seen. There is still speculation that users may be offered a support extension or a made-up solution, pushing aside the paid support options that will become available as prices rise.

Also this week, Microsoft started rolling out the Windows 2024 update, which is unsurprisingly dominated by AI and “the latest Copilot+ PC innovation.” The new Windows 11 24H2 update “is a complete operating system (OS) swap that includes new foundational elements needed to deliver transformational AI experiences and exceptional performance,” Microsoft says, describing the new features.

With AI front and center, the main context behind this update will be Recall, the controversial screenshot feature that attempts to save a complete documentary record of everything users do on their PC. This turned out poorly when it was first announced, given the security and especially privacy implications, and so it now comes with compromises, including options to disable or even remove it.

ForbesGoogle’s Gmail decision: ‘significant risk’ for millions of usersBy means of Zak Duffman

Looked at another way, there are almost twice as many Windows users who are not yet ready to make an AI leap as those who have. Windows 11 didn’t launch with AI at its core, but that’s how it’s being presented now. And so now that AI is taking center stage – just as it is with the latest iOS and Android OS updates landing on the mobile phones of those same users, we’ll start to see how universal the appeal of these updates manifests itself.

Month after month over the next year, you can expect updates on the ever-accelerating switching numbers needed to avoid that support nightmare. That all starts this week as user reviews and responses come in for the latest AI updates. And for all those hanging in there, the weekly reports on Windows 11 hardware upgrade fixes and likely support options beyond October will continue.