Updated Saturday 9am ET

The broad tropical disturbance we’ve been discussing for days is rapidly consolidating in the western Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has declared it Tropical Depression Fourteen. This will likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm Milton later today. Hurricane Milton is forecast to hit on Monday.

Winds near the system are already approaching tropical storm strength. The various computer forecast models increasingly agree that the storm will strengthen and move towards the Florida peninsula.

The National Hurricane Center now predicts that Hurricane Milton will make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a Category 2 major storm. That means we need to prepare for at least a Category 3. Some credible computer models predict a Category 4.

Development of the Gulf threat.

(CIRA / RAAMB / FOX weather)

The current schedule calls for the storm to reach the peninsula around Wednesday, although winds could increase late Tuesday. Well ahead of the storm, waves of heavy rain are forecast starting tomorrow, especially in Central and South Florida.

It is too early to predict how much storm surge this system could cause on the west coast of Florida, but it will be significant and dangerous. In some areas it will likely be higher than Hurricane Helene.

The threat of storm surge will be defined as the system organizes and moves closer to Florida. Expect detailed information from the National Hurricane Center starting tomorrow, including hurricane and storm surge watches and warnings.

The west coast of Florida is spectacularly vulnerable to storm surge, as we have seen. Even a tropical storm can push Gulf waters to dangerous levels, let alone a strong hurricane. It is critical that everyone in Central and South Florida stay informed as things are developing rapidly.

By the time Milton approaches Florida midweek, a cold front and a line of hostile upper-level winds will push south into the Gulf. How the front, higher winds and the potential hurricane will interact is still an open question, but the system could start to spread out in a transition to something more like a nor’easter. As we have seen, a scattered storm produces more storm surges.

Tropical Depression Fourteen number.

(National Hurricane Center/FOX Weather)

Don’t get hung up on the meteorology of it. The bottom line is that the chances of an impactful and dangerous storm are increasing for parts of the West Coast and the Florida Peninsula.

Pay no attention to individual computer predictions. As always, they are expected to bounce around as the system evolves. The important point is that the likelihood of significant storm surge is increasing in all heavily populated areas of Florida’s Gulf Coast.

In addition, up to a foot of rain could fall in some places. It is impossible to know where in Central or South Florida at this time, but flooding is certainly possible.

Under the current schedule, the system would move through Thursday, bringing a cold front across the peninsula, ushering in cooler and drier fall weather.

Things are going to change quickly, so stay tuned. We will of course report on it on Fox Weather. If you don’t get the channel, go to FoxWeather.tv. Here you will find information on how to watch on your TV, computer, iPad or phone. It’s always free.

Stay informed. Things can develop quickly.

IN THE ATLANTIC: Hurricane Kirk flirted with Category 5 strength. It is moving north into the open Atlantic Ocean as a major Category 3 hurricane. Strong swells, causing beach erosion and dangerous surf, will reach the US East Coast tomorrow through Monday. The UK is expected to be threatened next week.

Just behind, Hurricane Leslie is also turning north. There will also be swell along the east coast. They come later in the week, but are not as strong as Kirk’s.

The National Hurricane Center depicts an area off the African coast where a new disturbance could develop. However, at the moment the odds are in the low range. Whatever happens to it, it will likely move north into the open Atlantic Ocean as well.