Welcome to October Surprise, the Daily Beast’s daily countdown to the biggest election of our lifetimes. It’s only 32 days until Election Day and here’s what’s happening in the race for the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

THE DOWNLOAD

CNN’s senior political data reporter, Harry Entenwarned Friday that Vice President Harris’ presidential campaign is in trouble — so much so that he said a victory would be “historically unprecedented.”

Enten analyzed polling data around the question: “Do you think the country is on the right track?” Apparently, only 28 percent of Americans think the United States is currently moving in the right direction under their Democratic leadership. This figure stands at 42 percent in years when the party of the incumbent White House president wins the presidency, and only 25 percent when it loses, he said.

“To me, this is a bad sign for Kamala Harris’ campaign,” he said. “The bottom line is that the country looks much more like a loser than a winner when it comes to the country being on the right track.”

President Joe Biden expressed concern on Friday about whether Trump and his allies will incite political violence after the election if he loses to Harris.

“Two separate questions,” Biden said when asked at a White House news conference whether he was confident the election will be free, fair and peaceful. “I’m confident it will be free and fair. I don’t know if it will be peaceful.”

In his first White House briefing of his entire presidency, Biden said: “The things Trump said, and the things he said last time when he didn’t like the outcome of the election, were very dangerous. I worry about what they’re going to do.”

POLLEN OBSESSED

Could this race be any more exciting? CNN’s latest Poll of Polls, released Friday, puts Harris at 49 percent, compared to Trump’s 48 percent. The average is of the four most recent national polls of registered or likely voters that met CNN’s standards for impartiality. The polls were all taken after Trump and Harris debated, but before Tim Walz and JD Vance faced off this week. The race is so close that the Poll of Polls hasn’t moved in a month, CNN said.

ON THE MOVE

Everyone hit a swing state on Friday. Harris campaigned in Michigan, which Biden narrowly won in 2020 and carried Trump in a stunning upset in 2016. Trump and Vance made their bus tour of Georgia, where the former president met with Gov. Brian Kemp—even though they can hardly stand up to others—to survey hurricane damage before heading to North Carolina. Walz was scheduled to make a campaign stop in Wisconsin.

FLASHBACK FRIDAY

The vice presidential debate on October 4, 2016 was just as decidedly vanilla Mike Pencewho, as governor of Indiana at the time, ran against Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine. But the two people from the Midwest (Kaine was born in Minnesota and raised in a suburb of Kansas City) got really heated over Trump’s tax returns. Trump had spent months breaking a 2014 promise to release them, and Kaine attacked Pence over the issue, sparking a bickering that was impossible to contain. “Okay,” Kaine said when the moderator ordered them both to stop. “We’re having a great time here.”

BEAST OF THE DAY

Elon Musk plans to join other MAGA World stars at Trump’s return rally on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania, at the site where a gunman wounded the former president in an assassination attempt in July.

The world’s richest man will make his first campaign appearance Erik Trump and his wife, Lara Trumpthe co-chairman of the Republican National Committee. Vance will also be there, as will several Trump loyalists in Congress, including Rep. Ronnie JacksonTrump’s former White House doctor who examined Trump’s gunshot wound.

In a post to Trump’s X account late Thursday, the Republican candidate praised his upcoming event as “HISTORIC!” In response to the tweet, Musk wrote: “I will be there to support!”

SHAMELESS PLUG

The new abnormal co-hosts Danielle Moodie And Andy Levy are angry about the current political mess Americans find themselves in – but not about who you might think. Their goal? “A so-called Democrat who had to fulfill a very important task and failed.” Find out who they’re inciting by downloading on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon and Stitcher.