UFC 307 Preview: Jose Aldo Has More Skills Than Mario Bautista; Will height be his downfall?

Even at the age of 38, Jose Aldo is still adding new facets to his mixed martial arts game, as if the old skills he had weren’t enough.

Aldo was already widely praised for having the best takedown defense in MMA history, as well as some of the best boxing, leg kicks, body shots, reads, hand speed and all-around athleticism. All that alone wouldn’t make him any worse than a formidable opponent – ​​even if his abilities deteriorate with age – for bantamweight contender Mario Bautista, who has developed into a great fighter.

Still, the toughest opponent for Aldo to overcome may not even be Bautista himself, but rather the heights in Salt Lake City, Utah, just like last time. He competed there.

That night, ‘The King of Rio’ defended all sixteen takedowns of now bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. However, the former featherweight champion and all-time great still lost the fight to the wrestler, using simple wall-and-stall tactics.

Aldo never had a great gas tank; As early as 2011, he left fifth rounds on the scorecards of fights he won, such as against Mark Hominick. However, it only took him one fight as he met the unbreakable cardio monster Max Holloway, who had to lose two more rounds and walk through fire to sap the Brazilian’s gas tank enough to finish him.

When Aldo moved up to bantamweight, everyone feared what would happen. He already had bad cuts at times, and no weight loss just gets harder as you get older, but he made it. In fact, not only did he gain 135 pounds (which is absurd to do for the first time after sixteen years as a combat athlete) but after some initial growing pains he began to excel.

Aldo went on a run, winning three straight fights against the top ten bantamweights and coming within striking distance of a title shot. The shot went to TJ Dillashaw instead, where we return to a fight against Merab, 4,500 feet above sea level, and the GOAT’s retirement from mixed martial arts.

After that loss, he competed in boxing fights at smaller shows in Brazil, honing and testing the skills for which he had gained a renewed enthusiasm since joining the Brazilian Navy boxing team. He went 2-0-1, seemed to have renewed energy, and when the UFC called to fill a lackluster card in Rio de Janiero, the king of that same city responded with enthusiasm.

In return for his first MMA retirement, Jose Aldo showed up in his hometown, comfortably outscoring veteran striker Jonathan Martinez. He’s back and ready to give the world some fun fights in the sport’s best division, as long as they’re not at a height where he’ll blow out again.

After all, before the height, Aldo had just won a five-round war against Rob Font and set a career record for significant strikes in a three-round match against Munhoz. Aldo at high altitude couldn’t even explode to get off the fence or get close to 100 blows without gassing.

So who exactly at UFC headquarters thought it made sense to put ‘The King of Rio’ in the one situation where he can’t effectively showcase his skills? Do they hate baby goats there, or is Mario Bautista just getting a sudden push he’s never gotten before?

Or are the matchmakers just stupid? I’m only a modest kickpunch fan, but I really don’t see how I can pick Jose Aldo in this fight. I know it can be bad form to spend most of an article emphasizing one point, but in any other scenario I would really choose Aldo over Bautista, so making this fight at altitude changes the whole complexion of it. Mario is good, but hasn’t proven himself to be elite yet, and Jose has never lost to a fighter outside of the truly elite. The worst opponent he has lost to in the UFC is Marlon Moraes, who was still among the elite at the time.

Jose Aldo makes great MMA strikers look like children and elite MMA wrestlers look foolish when they attempt a double leg, and even more so when they lose the single after he feeds it to them. Mario Bautista is one of the better wrestlers in the division, but he has almost no hope of beating Aldo, even at high altitude.

What he can do is increase the pace, something he already does consistently with an average of 5.69 significant strikes per minute. It’s still likely that Mario will drop the first round on the scorecards, but if the fight lasts longer, he’ll have tools that will bother Aldo: ranged weapons like teeps, gas-stealing weapons like body punches and knees, and the ability to to mix these. up and clinch or shoot.

Crushing Aldo’s reactions with a wide variety of attacks, absorbing the return fire and then overwhelming him with volume once he tires is exactly what Max did to take down the GOAT in 2017, which is still essentially the definitive version is what Mario was working towards against Ricky Simon. Bautista is nowhere near the level of striker Holloway, but I believe with the advantages of time and height it doesn’t matter.

Of course, he won’t hold and hold ‘The King of Rio’, but further draining his gas tank with cage wrestling would be an excellent move, something Mario used against Da’Mon Black’s equipment. Merab showed one blueprint for this occasion.

I could be wrong. Maybe Jose Aldo took EPO or took more than a month to adjust to the altitude, but being active almost a mile away causes a different kind of fatigue, one that shuts down the body and isn’t as easily combated as it is at sea level.

The last time he walked a bit slower because of the situation and therefore never got the chance to release to Merab, and then he still got tired. If he goes for leather trying to stop Bautista early, I fear it will only accelerate the exhaustion unless he manages a first-round knockout.

Mario Bautista is a pretty cool fighter, especially his wrestling, so this isn’t the worst thing ever, but any MMA fan would at least prefer Aldo to be given an even playing field to try and win.