Democrats see a rare opportunity in the Senate race in Nebraska, where independent candidate Dan Osborn faces an unexpectedly competitive challenge against Republican Deb Fischer.

Nebraska has supported Republicans in every presidential election since 1964. The state remains solidly conservative, thanks to large swathes of rural counties that regularly give GOP candidates 80 or 90 percent of their votes. Democrats rarely bother investing money or resources in Nebraska, which supported former President Donald Trump by nearly 20 points over President Joe Biden in 2020.

But Osborn, a moderate independent whose platform combines the positions of both parties, could make the race closer than initially expected. If Osborn wins, he could serve as a crucial tie-breaking vote in the Senate, which is expected to be closely divided regardless of who wins the most competitive races in November.

A series of recent polls showed good news for Osborn. A Bullfinch Group poll conducted among 400 likely voters from September 27 to October 1 found him with a 5-point lead over Fischer (47 percent to 42 percent).

A SurveyUSA poll sponsored by Osborn found him up one point (45 percent to 44 percent). From September 20 to 23, 558 likely voters were surveyed. A Global Strategy Group poll of 600 likely voters from August 26 to 29 put Fischer one point higher (43 percent to 42 percent).

Kevin Smith, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, explained Newsweek that while polling error is always possible, the “weight of evidence” suggests it could in fact be a close race “since there are now a number of polls all triangulating on the general inference of a close race.”

“Both the campaigns and more and more outside funders certainly see this as a competitive race,” he said.

Osborn is running a “high visibility campaign” and has a “compelling backstory,” Smith said, noting that his anti-establishment sentiment may resonate with Nebraska voters “who feel like both major parties have had enough.”

But he needs to win over not just Democrats and independents, but also at least some Republicans to win statewide in Nebraska. That remains a challenge, says Smith.

“There may be a real appetite for a viable option outside of the traditional Republican/Democratic choice, and Osborn could very well take advantage of that,” he said.

Fischer was not expected to have a closer race. She rarely breaks the Republican Party line and has faced no scandals that would alienate the state’s voters. She also received the support of Trump, who remains popular with Republicans in Nebraska.

“To my knowledge, there is nothing in Deb Fischer’s state history that should unnecessarily upset the conservative Republican voter who is the largest constituency in a statewide race in Nebraska,” Smith said.

He added that some polls show Fischer among the lowest approval ratings in the Senate, such as a 2020 Morning Consult poll that placed her among the top 10 least popular senators. Still, he said it’s “difficult to think that this would lead to a non-trivial share of Republican voters seriously considering voting for an independent.”

Dan Osborn, Deb Fischer Fundraising Compared

Although the polls are tight, Fischer has maintained a fundraising advantage over Osborn.

By the end of June, the Republican incumbent had raised $6.2 million, while Osborn raised $1.6 million, according to the nonprofit OpenSecrets. She had spent $3.8 million, while Osborn had spent just under $1 million.

Fischer still had almost $3 million in the bank, compared to Osborn’s $650,000

Osborn, a mechanic, military veteran and former leader of his manufacturing union, supports the policies of both the Democratic and Republican parties. The issue page on his website emphasizes his support for a “safe border,” as well as gun rights. He also supports the legalization of cannabis and reproductive rights.

He has not aligned himself with either party, and he has not said who he would caucus with in the Senate, while previously suggesting he might vote with whichever party has the majority.

“The people of Nebraska want a senator who will listen to them,” Dustin Wahl, Osborn’s communications director, said in a statement to Newsweek. “He’s going to work for the everyday people of this state, and they can see that he’s the real deal.”

However, Fischer has tried to highlight some of his more liberal views in an effort to tie him to Democrats.

Derek Oden, a spokesman for Fischer, said Newsweek that Osborn is a “liberal Democrat in disguise” who is “funded by the same billionaire Democrats who support Kamala Harris.”

If elected, Osborn would join a small but influential group of independents already in the Senate. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine are both independents who run with Democrats. Senators Krysten Sinema and Joe Manchin are also independents who have left the Democratic Party, although they are both retiring this cycle.

Osborn tries to avoid the fate of the independents of Alaska, Kansas and Utah

Democrats living in red states have backed independent candidates in a handful of previous Senate races in recent years, hoping that an independent candidate could win the support of enough Republicans to spark unrest. But these efforts failed in states like Alaska and Kansas, leaving some wary of Osborn’s chances.

In 2014, Democrats hoped that independent candidate Greg Orman could defeat Senator Pat Roberts, a Kansas Republican, as several polls at the time showed him in the lead. But Roberts ultimately won by double digits, with more than 53 percent of the vote, compared to Orman’s 42.5 percent.

A similar story played out in Alaska in 2020, when independent Al Gross faced Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. Polls in the run-up to the election showed a tight race, with a handful even showing Gross ahead of the incumbent president. Sullivan ultimately won handily, with 54 percent of the vote to Gross’s 41 percent.

Four years earlier, some polls also showed independent candidate Evan McMullin in a close race against Republican Senator Mike Lee in Utah. Lee went on to win by about 10 points, with 53 percent of the vote to McMullin’s 43 percent.

All three independents exceeded expectations — with Orman and McMullin in years expected to be difficult for Democrats — but ultimately fell short. Osborn will spend the next month campaigning in an effort to win over enough voters to avoid a similar fate.

How Republican is Nebraska?

In 2020, Trump won Nebraska by 19 points, securing 58 percent of the vote in the state, compared to Biden’s 39 percent.

Trump won all but two counties: Douglas County, which includes the liberal outpost of Omaha, and Lancaster County, home to the college town of Lincoln.

That marks a shift to the left from 2016, when Trump won the state by 25 points, with 59 percent of the vote, while Hillary Clinton won 34 percent. Omaha and its suburbs have become increasingly Democratic in recent years, but not enough to offset the large number of Republican votes in the rural, western part of the state.

The Cook Political Report rates the presidential race in Nebraska as safely Republican. However, it is one of two states, along with Maine, that divides the Electoral College votes. Trump is expected to win the two statewide votes, as well as two of the three congressional districts.

The Senate race is rated “Likely Republican,” meaning it is “not considered competitive at this time” but has “the potential to become involved.”