Weeks after US Democratic Party presidential candidate Kamala Harris evened her odds on the prediction markets in winning the November election against former US President Donald Trump, it appears her Republican opponent is back in the lead.

Specifically, Trump’s chances of winning the election currently stand at 50%, while Harris’s are at 49%, meaning the former’s chances have increased by 0.4%, while those of the incumbent vice president have increased by 0.1 % have decreased, according to the latest figures. Polymarkt information on October 4.

Trump vs. Harris in prediction markets

The cryptocurrency-based prediction platform that took bets on the regulated dollar stablecoin USDC, which currently suggests Trump’s slight advantage, was firmly in his favor in July after the (first) failed assassination attempt on him.

At the time, the rally shooting in Pennsylvania, which ended with only an ear injury, increased the former president’s chances of victory from 60% to 70% in one day, after having steadily increased up to that point. However, his dominance dropped to 46% after Harris entered the race and replaced Joe Biden.

Several weeks later, Trump regained popularity against his Democratic rival, with a 52% chance of victory versus Harris’s 47%. In mid-September, Harris again downgraded Trump’s leadership position and evened the scales, with both candidates showing an equal 49% chance of winning.

Manipulation attempts?

That said, it appears there have been some failed attempts to manipulate the outcome of derivatives bets between Trump and Harris in the market Polymarkt platform a few days after Trump regained popularity in early September, as Finbold reported on September 7.

Coincidentally, an X researcher is known as Waste container DAO noted at the time the indicators of the manipulation attempt, which involved deploying more than $9 million USDC to buy the “yes” stocks for Harris and “no” stocks for Trump, in an attempt to boost the vice president’s chances of winning and to take advantage of it by artificially enlarging it.

Taken together, the prediction markets, while providing a sense of the candidates’ popularity, illustrate the complex nature of the upcoming US presidential election, with the two parties having almost identical odds of winning in the absence of any shock events. emphasizing the importance of doing your own research when making important bets.