A good indication of whether the Bears are a team that can win consistently enough to have a shot at the playoffs is to look at away games.

Another is to win matches that no one expects to win, but first things first.

Last week was the opposite, when they narrowly defeated a team they should have been able to beat even in their rookie quarterback’s debut at home. They found a way to beat a team that fully supplied them.

They play in Houston on Sunday night, and teams in the NFL found road games just as tough last year as they usually do, with the home team winning 55 percent of the time.

The only playoff teams with a losing record on foreign soil last year were Dallas and Cleveland, both of which were quickly eliminated from the playoffs.

The good teams find ways to win enough away games to maintain their high home win total. The Bears have won six straight at home after last week. It’s clear they’ve got this part of the formula down.

Now it’s time to work on the other part.

It doesn’t matter that they haven’t won a single away game on a Sunday night since Marc Trestman’s final year as coach in 2014. They just want to start winning away games. The last time they won more than they lost was in 2020, their final playoff season.

THREE BEARS KEYS TO VICTORY OVER THE TEXANS

BEARS THAT ARE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR HOUSTON TEXANS

BIGGEST BEAR PROBLEMS WITH THE TEXANS

HOW TO WATCH BEARS AND TEXANS WITH RADIO AND BETS AND TRENDS

On Sunday evening they will assess how far they have actually come.

It’s the Bears vs. the Texans on Sunday Night Football. Here’s who wins and why.

Bears Running vs. Texans Run Defense

Houston’s run defense relied heavily on linebacker Henry To’oTo’o last week, but it relied far too much on the secondary to provide run support. No one on the defensive front had a 52.1 grade against the run according to Pro Football Focus except To’oTo’o and Will Anderson (67.7). Those weren’t exactly spectacular numbers. Anderson’s was solid. The Bears should be able to run the ball, but there’s a difference between should and have or did. They didn’t run the ball and fell behind 17-0. They ran 10 times with D’Andre Swift, twice with Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer, and that was it. They did give it to Velus Jones Jr. twice, but he’s still listed as a wide receiver. They need to prove they can run before they do. The second-best rushing attack from last year means nothing now that it was largely built on the threat of Justin Fields’ runs. No border

Bears Passing vs. Texans Pass Defense

The Houston secondary is ripe for the picking with two rookies playing significant roles and after giving up three pass plays of 50 yards or longer to Anthony Richardson. That’s the kind of task you’d normally think Caleb Williams would relish. But the Texans can rush the passer off the edge, especially with Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The passing will have to come from the pocket, and Williams isn’t comfortable stepping up and throwing at that point. He’s a rookie QB, playing for the first time on the road. It certainly doesn’t help that two of Williams’ top targets, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, are injury-prone. Houston’s pass defense would have to be really shaky to be challenged here. Even with two rookies, it isn’t. Texans Take Lead.

Bears Run Defense vs. Texans Running Game

The running attack that Houston put together with Joe Mixon last week was impressive, but it’s easy to predict that they’ll be a little more adventurous at home. If the Bears play run defense like they did in the second half of last week, Mixon will face the same type of failure that Anthony Pollard did in the second half of last week. Andrew Billings and TJ Edwards make the Bears’ run defense formidable. Mixon’s 159-yard effort on 30 carries proves that the Texans can do it, but will they try? No border

Texans Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

This is a tough matchup for both teams. It will come down to whether the Houston offensive line does a better job of keeping C.J. Stroud out of foul trouble than Tennessee’s line did last week for Will Levis. The Bears secondary will be able to stay with Houston’s receivers most of the time, although not all of them on every play. If the pass rush can get Stroud under pressure, they can expect to see similar production as last week. If not, some of those plays where the secondary can’t cover everyone, especially those targeting Tyrique Stevenson, Kevin Byard, Kyler Gordon or Jaquan Brisker, will result in big plays or touchdowns. Jaylon Johnson should be able to get the job done, regardless. This is one of the best passing games the Bears will face and if they can stop it, there will be no doubt that they have a top-five defense. Most of their better efforts have come against less effective passers. Texans Take Lead

Special teams

The Bears had about as complete a special teams win last week as any NFL team can have, save for Velus Jones Jr. playing football with an NFL football. He did it right, not by getting his hands on it and then kicking it. Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has been reliable from 50 yards or more, though his career return percentage is three points lower than what Cairo Santos has done for the Bears. The Bears liked what they got from DeAndre Carter in the return game last week, and Houston gave up over 27 yards per four kick returns, which is a high average. Bears Take Lead.

Accompaniment

Matt Eberflus’ ability to call defenses when he has a solid group of players in his scheme has been evident, but Shane Waldron’s attempt to scheme for the big play has missed too many opportunities for first downs, and Williams is the type of QB who won’t correct that until he’s better trained to do so. Texans play caller Bobby Slowik is one of the league’s bright young offensive minds, and DeMeco Ryans hasn’t done anything on the defensive end to suggest he’d have a problem with a Bears offense that features two potential receiver injuries and no running game in Week 1. Texans Take Lead

Intangibles

They’re opening the roof for this one, and that should make it a little less noisy. Just a little. The Bears are back in their pumpkin helmets and uniforms, and they’re 1-3 when that mistake happens. The Bears don’t have a history of successful play-offs, and doing so against a young, up-and-coming playoff team is a recipe for disaster. Texans Take Lead

Final Score: Texans 26, Bears 13

It takes a vivid imagination to see Williams lead a road win against a playoff team two games into his career. Even if last week’s 93-yard day is dismissed as a learning experience for a rookie debut, it takes proven experience to beat a playoff team on the road in primetime.

Twitter: BearsOnSI